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INDONESIA’S STRATEGY IN DEALING WITH THE THREAT OF A
GLOBAL RECESSION ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN TERM OF
MACRO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Muchammad Arif Deddy Yuanda
1*
, Yudi Sutrasna
2
, Djoko Andreas Navalino
3
Faculty of Defense Management, The Republic of Indonesia Defense University,
Bogor, Indonesia
1,2,3
m.yuanda@mp.idu.ac.id
1
, yudis88a@gmail.com
2
, djoandre.navals@gmail.com
3
ABSTRACT
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that Indonesia is a bright spot amidst the gloomy
world economy. Previously, Indonesia had experienced considerable economic shocks, namely the
Asian financial crisis which began in mid-1997 and peaked in 1998, as well as the global economic crisis
in 2008 and 2009. Meanwhile, Indonesia is currently at an inflation rate of 5.59% (mom) based on data
obtained from BI in the third quarter of 2022 recorded at 130,782 billion USD with an exchange rate of
rupiah against the dollar of IDR 15,650. compared to foreign exchange reserves in 2021 of 144.9 billion
USD with an exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar of IDR 14,350 with an inflation rate of 1.87%
(YoY). To support the increase in foreign exchange reserves from the macroeconomic side is sourced
from large export capabilities, in addition to manufacturing investment, and also on foreign exchange
circulation through foreign tourists who come to Indonesia by enriching the tourist sector is able to add
to the amount of foreign exchange reserves of the Indonesian state in line with research conducted by
rizieq (2006). through manufacturing investment and also the presence of foreign tourists who come are
able to create jobs indirectly absorb existing unemployment. so that the wave of recession can still be
controlled and foreign exchange reserves increase. it is hoped that the research conducted will be able to
provide input to the government in making a policy in facing the wave of recession in Indonesia.
Keywords: World Recession; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Inflation; Exports; Imports; Foreign Tourists;
Stagflation
INTRODUCTION
Departing from a phenomenon of economic problems that are currently sweeping around
the world, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that Indonesia is a bright spot in the
midst of the gloom of the world economy. These are some of the impacts felt previously when
Covid-19 hit around the world, followed by the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-China trade war
(BPMI Sekretariat Presiden, 2022).
Indonesia is one of the countries that feels the symptoms that a wave of recession will hit.
Previously, Indonesia had experienced major economic shocks, namely the Asian financial crisis
that began in the middle of the year. 1997 and reached its peak in 1998, and the global economic
crisis in 2008 and 2009. Meanwhile, Indonesia is currently at an inflation rate of 5.59% (mom)
based on data obtained from BI in the TW-III of 2022, the remaining foreign exchange reserves
are 130.782 billion USD with the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar of IDR 15,650. compared
to 2021, foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 144.9 billion with the rupiah exchange rate
against the dollar of IDR 14,350 with an inflation rate of 1.87% (yoy). Foreign exchange reserves
are measured every 1 year, but in September it has shown a decline in foreign exchange reserves.
Can be seen in the table below (Ravn & Sterk, 2017).
Table 1
Real data on foreign exchange reserves for the previous 3 years
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Foreign Exchange Reserve Position (Million
US$)
2019
2020
2021
Monetary Gold
3843.88
4758.00
4595.16
Special Drawing
1541.95
1605.00
7795.37
Reserve Posotion in the
1090.05
1135.00
1109.75
Foreign Exchange Reserves
122707.40
128398.00
131405.10
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Foreign banknotes
10326.10
10385.00
12391.55
Securities
111748.33
117324.00
118341.75
Other Charges
633.00
689.00
671.79
Count
129183.28
135897.00
144905.38
Data source: Bank Indonesia
Foreign exchange reserves are funds owned by each country, used during an economic
downturn to be able to maintain the stability of the Indonesian economy as it will be faced today.
The rules for the use of reserve assets have been stipulated in Law on Bank Indonesia No. 23 of
1999 as amended by Law No. 3 of 2004. Foreign exchange reserves are always in line with Bank
Indonesia's balance of payments. The amount of foreign exchange reserves is influenced by the
size of export, import activities in Indonesia and the rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) (Uli,
2016).
According to Vincent sterk (2017) suggests that the indicator in explaining the recession is
lower demand for goods so that it reduces job vacancies and the level of job search is more
difficult. Jiří Mazurek &; Elena Mielcova (Mazurek & Mielcová, 2013) recession compared to
more than one economic indicator. In terms of policy in the face of recession, Scott Sumner
(Sumner, 2017) in his writing stated that monetary policy is able to bring crises and recessions in
a positive direction, namely by proposing a class of monetary policy rules that balance the need
for policy flexibility in unusual situations. However, according to Sher Verick & Iyanatul Islam
(Verick & Islam, 2010) consider that the global economy is not at all as stable as expected, where
the world's poor do not benefit enough from stronger economic growth. Tulus TH tambunan
(2010) Indonesia's economy is much more resilient to the last crisis compared to the crisis in
1997/98. Iman Sugema (Sugema, 2012) even though the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 did
not cause economic growth to be negative but only slowed down, but the actual poverty and
unemployment rate were slightly higher than they should be (Ravn & Sterk, 2017).
This study aims to explain the strategies used in dealing with the global recession on the
amount of foreign exchange reserves. so that Indonesia is able to maintain the value of the
country's existing foreign exchange reserves. This research has previously been conducted by
several researchers related to foreign exchange reserves, including the analysis of Indonesia's
foreign exchange reserves has been researched by (Sayoga & Tan, 2017; Uli, 2016). Research
focusing on exports, imports, exchange rates, and inflation on Indonesia's foreign exchange
reserves has been researched by (Agustina, 2014; Benny, 2013; Sonia & Setiawina, 2016).
Furthermore, research that focuses on interest rate and foreign debt variables on foreign exchange
reserves has been researched by (Ardianti & Swara, 2018; Putra & Indrajaya, 2013; Ridho, 2015).
Meanwhile, the research that the researcher wrote before is still not too much done, namely
Indonesia's strategy in dealing with the recession that will occur like the economic crises that have
occurred before. This shows that the Indonesian economy was also affected by the world economic
recession in 2008/09, however Indonesia was able to maintain a positive economic growth rate.
This is the background for the author to raise research on "Indonesia's strategy in facing the threat
of global recession to foreign exchange reserves" (Tambunan, 2010).
RESEARCH METHOD
The research method that researchers use in writing articles is Indonesia's Strategy in facing
the threat of a global recession against foreign exchange reserves. So as to be able to provide in-
depth identification and understanding to be able to prepare for the global recession by looking at
data on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves which have declined significantly in the quarterly
period. As for foreign exchange reserves, there is a normal increase or decrease every year. It can
be seen and measured from Foreign Exchange reserves since 2019-2022.
Indonesia’s Strategy in Dealing with The Threat of A Global Recession on Foreign Exchange Reserves in
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The research approach used by the author is to use qualitative research methods and use
literature studies. Quality research is the collection of data in a natural setting with the intention
of interpreting phenomena that occur where researchers are key instruments (Anggito & Setiawan,
2018, p. 8). Meanwhile, according to Maxwell, 13 qualitative research is aimed at understanding
meaning, understanding the particular context, anticipating unanticipated phenomena and
influences, and understanding processes. The steps when conducting research are to start from
learning from previous research. So that the purpose of the study identifies and explains
Indonesia's strategy in using foreign exchange reserves effectively and efficiently in facing the
global recession. In research using SWOT Analysis (Prakoso et al., 2021).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
According to Rizieq (Rizieq, 2006), foreign exchange reserves are foreign currency held
by the government and private sector of the country. Foreign exchange reserves can be determined
using the balance of payments. The more currency a country and its people have, the greater the
country's ability to conduct international economic and financial transactions, and the stronger
the country's currency. In other words, when the value of the currency increases, it indirectly has
the effect of strengthening the country's economy when hit by recession or inflation. Therefore,
research shows that a country's foreign exchange reserves are very important before a recession
or inflationary boom. From several conditions based on several phenomena that have arisen,
using the SWOT Analysis method will be explained clearly and in detail. The indicator used is
that only 4 indicators will be explained according to the theory of SWOT Analysis.
Strenght
The strength in question is a superior capability or ability possessed from macroeconomic
activities or activities so as to be able to make foreign exchange reserves survive in the economic
tsunami wave that will hit. Some of these indicators will be combined and taken which are very
relevant to foreign exchange reserves in times of global recession.
1) Which macroeconomic activity is dominant in times of recession underway?
Many macroeconomic sectors can be affected by the decline during the ongoing
recession, but even on the contrary there are some that have a positive impact including
export activities and manufacturing investment. It can be seen in the garifk image below.
Figure 1
Manufacturing investment chart image Sep 2021 – Sep 2022
Source: Dkata data.co.id
From the figure above, it can be shown that manufacturing investment during a
recession can answer the challenges to the resilience of Indonesia's economic growth value.
The manufacturing sector that contributed the most to the achievement of PMDN was the
food industry with a value of Rp. 24.2 trillion or an increase of 8.8% on an annual basis
(year-on-year). Furthermore, for FDI achievement, the largest contribution from the
manufacturing sector is the basic metal industry, metal goods, not machinery and equipment
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which reached USD5.7 billion or rose 26.3% (YoY) and the chemical and pharmaceutical
industry amounted to USD1.8 billion or rose 8.1% (YoY).
2) What are the benefits of the manufacturing investment sector?
Figure 2
The biggest picture of foreign investment in Indonesia
Source: Dkata data.co.id
In terms of benefits, the most dominant manufacturing investment is the basic metal
industry, metal goods, not machinery and equipment of Rp87.9 trillion or up 15% (YoY),
followed by the food industry of Rp 42 trillion or up 7.2% (YoY). This can provide added
value and make foreign investors eager to invest. In addition, the impact and effects felt by
Indonesia are able to become a shock absorber in facing the shock of the ongoing global
recession.
3) Effect or not on foreign exchange reserves?
Its impact on foreign exchange reserves is very impactful and affects the rate of
economic growth in Indonesia. In addition, making foreign exchange reserves increase, this
can be seen from the growth of PMDN and PMA shown in the graph below.
Figure 3
PMDN and PMA Graphic Image Sep 2019 – Mar 2022
Source : Dkata data.co.id
As we see that in March 2022 PMA was higher compared to PMDN. Indirectly,
foreign investors still believe that Indonesia is a bright spot in facing the global recession. In
addition, it can be measured through a data table based on the trade balance as below.
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Table 2
Real table of Trade Balance
Month
2020
2021
2022
January
141.52
231.48
177.22
February
185.33
214.17
512.01
March
202.20
207.49
523.08
April
172.64
281.17
619.62
May
106.13
281.17
577.77
June
130.66
207.37
400.23
July
179.14
219.67
501.93
August
85.76
247.07
493.98
September
113.57
167.34
-
October
137.39
317.91
-
November
150.59
321.85
-
December
186.17
346.32
-
Source: BPS
Based on the table, the Trade balance in 2022 has increased drastically. Where it can
be concluded that the export value is greater than the import value. Indirectly, it is expected
that export sales proceeds can cover financing from imports. This greatly impacts the foreign
exchange reserves owned.
Weakness
In this case, it will be discussed about the weaknesses and shortcomings of one or several
types of weaknesses that must be avoided and not implemented so as not to lead to losses or
reduce the level of efficiency and effectiveness in the use of foreign exchange reserves.
1) What must be improved from the macroeconomic sector so that foreign exchange
reserves can grow and grow?
What needs to be improved from the macroeconomic sector is in foreign currency so
that it always circulates a lot in Indonesia. By utilizing the wealth of natural beauty so that it
can attract foreign tourists / tourists to come and visit Indonesia. It can be seen as the graphic
below.
Figure 4
Graphic image shows increase in foreign tourists January-July 2022
Source: IDX Channel.com
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From the graphic image, it explains that the graph is relatively up. This means that there
is an increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia. The details of these tourists
will be illustrated in the graph below.
Figure 5
Image by number of foreign tourists in Indonesia May 2022
Source : IDX Channel.com
From the chart data that the most frequent and number of foreign tourists are foreign
tourists from Australia. Tourism contributes to GDP growth of 21.7% globally. Tourism
revenue in Indonesia also increased to USD1.62 billion in the second quarter of 2022.
This greatly impacts and has an impact on the country's foreign exchange reserves.
From the income sector will be shown in the graph below.
Figure 6
Graph of tourist spending in Indonesia since 2014 – 2022
Source: IDX Channel.com
Based on the World Travel & Tourism Council's tables and calculations, domestic
tourists in Indonesia spent IDR 185.131 billion on vacation, while foreign tourists only
spent IDR 10.25 billion in 2021. Indirectly, the value of expenditures incurred by
foreign tourists is smaller than foreign tourists. In this aspect, what must be built and
improved so that the expenditure incurred by foreign tourists is greater than that of
domestic tourists. In addition, it is expected that the value of tourism foreign exchange
from the visit is also targeted to reach USD470 million to USD1.7 billion.
2) What should be avoided so that foreign exchange reserves cannot decline down?
Foreign debt must be suppressed and repaid. Because apabial at any time there is
inflation, foreign debt will indirectly have a very large impact. Because faced with an
increasingly weakening exchange rate, indirectly, debt that should have been at the dose has
skyrocketed and swelled. Indonesia's foreign debt notes can be seen in the chart below.
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Figure 7
Debt Diagram 2021 - 2022
Source: BI (Bank Indonesia, 2021)
From the results of the diagram, it has been indirectly lower than in 2021 and also in the
previous month. Data from Bank Indonesia (BI) shows that Indonesia's external debt position
in July 2022 was USD 400.38 billion. Thisdecreased from USD 403.65 billion in June 2022.
3) What will BI do as the holder of foreign exchange reserves if its availability decreases in
terms of macroeconomics?
In macroeconomics to be able to maintain foreign exchange reserves so as not to decline,
namely by increasing the value of exports and reducing the import sector of the Indonesian
state, increasing foreign tourists to visit Indonesia to increase the circulation of foreign
currency / foreign exchange in Indonesia. In addition, if the value of foreign exchange reserves
is stable or even increases indirectly, it will be easy for foreign investors to put their capital
into Indonesia. In addition, it also reduces the value of foreign debt and includes foreign debt
loans.
Opportunities
This discusses opportunities and opportunities that can be used to increase or maintain the
value of existing foreign exchange reserves from a macroeconomic perspective.
1) Opportunities or opportunities that can be used to maintain the value of foreign
exchange reserves?
Opportunities that can be utilized as they are today, namely Existing manufacturing
investments can maximize and allow to open jobs. So that it can reduce people affected by
layoffs or for people who do not have jobs / unemployment. That can be an opportunity to
reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia. It can be seen as the chart below.
Figure 8
Graph of population growth and unemployment in 2012 2022
Source: tradingeconomics.com
2) Faced with the current situation, what can be used as an opportunity or opportunity to
maintain the value of foreign exchange reserves?
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Apart from palm oil exports, it can increase the income of foreign tourists visiting
Indonesia in the form of foreign exchange, indirectly also boost the economic system in the
region where tourists visit, for example in Bali. This is what can create job vacancies and
reduce unemployment in the region.
Flexibility in the use of the state budget in every expenditure so as to be able to get
effective and efficient state budget results. To assist in maintaining and maintaining the value
of existing or available foreign exchange reserves.
Threat
All possible threats that will be faced in maintaining the value of foreign exchange reserves
remain stable or increase.
1) What obstacles will be faced and may reduce the value of foreign exchange reserves
from a macroeconomic perspective?
Future obstacles that will be faced are inflation that is heading towards the brink of
recession, including continued by stagflation. 2 things that are obstacles and challenges in
the future that will be felt relvan. This is described and associated with problems for small
companies that at the time of establishment needed debt or loans from outside funds to build
the company. So that's what you have to watch out for. In addition, inflation that is starting
to rise slowly is depicted in the inflation increase graph as shown below.
Figure 9
Inflation graph from 2019 - 2022
Source: BPS (Tempo.co)
This will indirectly have an impact on the exchange rate of the Indonesian currency
against the dollar, so that existing foreign debt will also have a higher impact due to the low
exchange rate.Stagflation where a condition of high unemployment is followed by an
increase in other prices in tandem within a certain period of time. Slowing economic growth
should not affect its unemployment rate. However, by looking at current conditions, faced
with expensive materials so that small companies are more likely to reduce their production
prices by laying off workers / employees. So that creates a condition called economic
stagnation.
Judging from several obstacles that must be watched out for and faced in maintaining
the value of existing foreign exchange reserves.
2) In terms of the rules for the use of foreign exchange reserves, are there any policies that
change or even the latest that are irrelevant?
Government regulations related to the Financial Sector Development and
Strengthening Bill (PPSK) or financial omnibus law are considered to threaten the
independence of authority institutions in the financial sector. Indirectly it will also affect the
country's foreign exchange reserves if it is under party leadership. Considered to have the
potential to weaken and damage the stability of the financial system that has been running
well. BI's independence is fundamental, as a pillar of credibility of our economic policies,
macroeconomic policies and policies in the field of central banking, especially regarding
monetary.
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3) Technological developments that can threaten related to the country's foreign exchange
reserves?
In terms of technology as it is today, it is very advanced and modern. However, this
can sometimes be an obstacle but can be a supporter and even an opportunity that the
implementation and storage of foreign exchange reserve funds can be carried out in a
transparent and accountable manner. So as to be able to support BI's performance in
regulating and managing foreign exchange reserve funds. In addition, to facilitate the public
in its supervision.
CONCLUSION
The results of writing this research can be concluded based on the research results of the
previously discussed discussion, including the following: Strength (Strenght): Based on the results
of the discussion above, which can be a strength, power so that it can support the increase in foreign
exchange reserves in terms of macroeconomics, namely the source of large export capabilities, in
addition to manufacturing investment and also in the circulation of foreign exchange through
foreign tourists coming to Indonesia. Weakness: weaknesses that must be avoided include the value
of foreign debt. Because with the existence and increasing amount of foreign debt, which is
dangerous if there is inflation, then indirectly the debt will also swell seeing that indirectly the
rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is decreasing. Opportunities: Based on the research results
in the discussion chapter, it can be concluded that from employment opportunities through
manufacturing investment and also the presence of foreign tourists who come so that they can
create jobs indirectly and absorb existing unemployment. In addition, it must be able to be careful
in utilizing APBN funds so that they can be used flexibly and more efficiently used. Threat: For
the results of the possible threats that will be posed based on the discussion in the previous chapter,
it can be concluded with several possibilities that can threaten including; 1) inflation and
stagflation. Both are harmful to foreign exchange reserves and threaten economic growth around
the world. If this is left without anticipation and vigilance in dealing with it, it will be able to bring
it to the brink of recession or a continuous crisis without knowing when it will stop. Therefore, it
is necessary to take preventive and precautionary measures so as not to fall into the abyss of
recession as is currently happening. 2) In terms of technology, the current monitoring of foreign
exchange reserves is already running well, it's just that it must be maintained and not changed
regarding transparent and accountable reporting in its use. 3) So that government policies and
regulations that have been regulated in the PPSK Bill are adjusted to what is currently in effect.
Because if the regulation is given to the party group, it will be very impactful and dangerous for
those who can utilize the foreign exchange reserves. So that this must be a guideline for the
government in considering these policies or regulations. the research that has been conducted
agrees with the results of research conducted by rizieq (2006).
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